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AXNT20 KNHC 040549
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
07N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N16W TO 02N30W TO 02N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 92W FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST TO A BASE IN THE SW
GULF NEAR 19N92W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD EAST OF THE
TROUGH WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AS E-SE FLOW PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 37N76W. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SW
NORTH ATLC OVER THE WEEKEND...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
SOME AS A COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN GULF
AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SPINE
OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO A BASE OVER
PANAMA. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING W OF 77W TO OVER
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA. EASTERLY TRADES
REMAIN STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
ENCOMPASSING THE AREA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W TO 78W AND
SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9 TO 14 FT. EAST OF 70W...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS VERY LITTLE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM OVER TRINIDAD NEAR 10N61W TO BEYOND 20N70W. WITH THIS
OVERALL SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT...CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN
FAIR WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM TRINIDAD
IN THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N61W NORTHWESTWARD TO BEYOND
32N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC CONTINUES TO MOVE ON THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N54W THEN W-SW ALONG 28N60W TO 26N70W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR
27N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC DUE
TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 21N59W TO 27N55W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY A 1042 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE
IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 47N06W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE HIGH TO 40N20W SW TO 25N40W.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE


forecast by HUFFMAN
updated at 105 AM EST SAT FEB 04 2012

AXPZ20 KNHC 040937
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 4 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N81W TO 04N97W TO 04N102W...THEN
AS ITCZ AXIS TO 06N116W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 90W.
...DISCUSSION...
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE ENTIRE
DISCUSSION AREA. HIGHEST WINDS WERE REGISTERED IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AND IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE WINDS ALONG 10N W OF
127W. DRAINAGE WIND FLOW TO 20 KT IS ALSO EXPECTED IN A SMALL
AREA OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE ON
THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NW
OF THE AREA EXTENDS TO A 1004 MB LOW NNW OF HAWAII NEAR 30N153W.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND APPROACH THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AS A 992 MB LOW LATE
TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 10M WINDS 30-35 KT
IN AREA N OF 26N W OF 136W IN THE 18-30 HOUR TIME FRAME. BUMPED
FCST WINDS HIGHER AND ISSUED GALE WARNING IN RESPONSE TO MODEL
FORECAST. HIGHEST WINDS WILL SHIFT N OF 30N SUN...BUT NEAR GALE
25-33 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON EITHER SIDE OF COLD FRONT SOUTH
OF THE GALE CENTER THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. LARGE NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 27N W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS THE GALE
FORCE LOW TRANSITS THROUGH THE FAR NW PORTION. AS A RESULT...
USUAL AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE WINDS WITHIN 5 DEG LATITUDE OF 10N
W OF 125W WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
GAP WINDS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO LATER TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO THROUGH SUN NIGHT. STRONG N WINDS FUNNELING
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT.
NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20 KT IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
AS PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO INTENSIFIES.


forecast by MUNDELL