AXNT20 KNHC 091154
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 5N20W 1N34W 1N41W...
INTO COASTAL NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 30W...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM COASTAL
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO 26N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS.
THE COLD FRONT RUNS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
TEXAS AS FAR TO THE SOUTH AS 27N...BEFORE CURVING MORE TO THE
WEST TO 26N102W NORTHERN MEXICO. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N
TO THE LOUISIANA GULF OF MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 91W AND 93W.
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE BORDER OF COASTAL NICARAGUA AND
COASTAL HONDURAS...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TO 25N60W BEYOND
33N35W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS PART OF THE TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS
THE COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 32N44W TO 24N56W TO THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE CLOUD LINE FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT...THROUGH 32N37W
TO 26N50W TO 22N60W...TO 23N72W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM
19N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 69W IN THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W
OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N TO 26N
BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 19N18W TO
14N23W 9N28W BEYOND 1N36W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND
A RIDGE THAT GOES FROM 35N19W TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 28N31W...TO 23N43W AND 22N54W.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.


forecast by MT
updated at 705 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2010

AXPZ20 KNHC 090947
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 09 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 06N77W
TO 08N88W TO 04N106W TO 09N131W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 123W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 38N125W WITH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW TO 32N125W TO 15N137W. RIDGING IS E OF THIS FEATURE
EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 12N106W AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND
N OF THE ITCZ. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 15N
TO 27N BETWEEN 121W AND 134W. A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN
PLACE IN THIS SAME AREA BETWEEN 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES
CENTERED NEAR 37N137W AND A PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 14N116W TO 07N125W. NE-E TRADES OF 20-30 KT ARE OCCURRING
FROM 07N TO 23N W OF 120W AS INDICATED BY A 0602 UTC ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS. ASCAT ALSO CAPTURED E TO SE WINDS OF 20 TO
30 KT WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH WILL
LINGER IN THE CENTRAL EPAC DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS EXTENDING
FROM 14N113W TO 05N126W IN 24 HOURS AND THEN FROM 19N109W TO
10N120W IN 48 HOURS. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL SHIFT SE-S TO
NEAR 30N135W IN 24 HOURS FURTHER TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT.
AS A RESULT THE AREA OF NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WILL FURTHER EXPAND
TO THE E.
IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS NW OF THE BAJA PENINSULA DUE TO A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES TROUGHING OVER
INTERIOR U.S. CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR
13N167W WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 44N140W TO THE W OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 16N E OF 108W. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR IN PLACE IN
THIS AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ.
GAP WINDS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUSH SE
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED THROUGH THE
CHIVELAS PASS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WILL
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY WED.
ACCORDINGLY A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 12 UTC WED
THROUGH 06 UTC THU.
A 0238 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THAT WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THERE IN 36 HOURS AS WINDS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA BECOME EASTERLY.
THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL STRENGTHEN IN 24
HOURS ENHANCING NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT BY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE


forecast by LEWITSKY