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    AXNT20 KNHC 110538
    TWDAT
    TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
    AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
    SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
    EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
    IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
    RADAR.
    BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
    0345 UTC.
    ...ITCZ...
    ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 4N21W 1N32W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
    NEAR 38W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S46W. SCATTERED
    MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF ITCZ
    BETWEEN 16W-19W.
    ...DISCUSSION...
    GULF OF MEXICO...
    LOW PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS WITH
    A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES. A
    SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER E KANSAS
    EXTENDS S OVER TEXAS MOVING TOWARD LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN
    UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC AND
    CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF
    WATERS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-LEVEL
    MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE COMBINING TO GENERATE SCATTERED
    SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER S MISSISSIPPI AND
    ALABAMA WELL AS IN THE NE GULF WATERS N OF 27N E OF 90W ACROSS
    THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
    FRONT TO ENTER THE GULF IS OVER NW LOUISIANA AND THROUGH
    ARKANSAS.
    CARIBBEAN SEA...
    THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER
    THE LEEWARD ISLANDS JUST N OF GUADELOUPE WITH A SHEAR AXIS
    CONTINUING W TO 16N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE SHEAR
    AXIS TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
    WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF
    LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W TO OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N83W. THE
    REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT.
    ATLANTIC OCEAN...
    SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH JUST
    W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE
    WEAK UPPER FLOW EXTEND BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CUBA W OF
    75W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND
    OVER CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 35W-70W SUPPORTING A COMPLEX
    FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW N OF THE
    MADEIRA ISLANDS THROUGH 32N15N ALONG 27N28W 29N37W TO A 1010 MB
    LOW NEAR 28N42W ALONG 21N48W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS JUST N OF
    GUADELOUPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
    THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM NW OF THE FRONT BETWEEN
    36W-58W. AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXETNDS FROM TROPICS
    NEAR 6N41W TO NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR
    ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC.
    FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
    HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE


    forecast by WALLACE
    updated at 105 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010

    AXPZ20 KNHC 110244
    TWDEP
    TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    0405 UTC THU MAR 11 2010
    TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
    THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
    BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
    0115 UTC.
    ...ITCZ...
    THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG A LINE
    FROM 05N77W TO 07N90W TO 05N104W TO 07N120W TO 04N140W.
    SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIED WITHIN 90 NM N OF
    THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 78W ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST AS WELL AS
    WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 96W. A TROUGH
    IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 10N120W TO 03N123W. SCATTERED
    MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FOUND WITHIN 210 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM
    05N TO 08N AND WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 05N TO 10N.
    ...DISCUSSION...
    AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM W TEXAS THROUGH NW
    MEXICO TO 20N140W. A STRONG UPPER JET LIES TO THE S OF THIS
    TROUGH AXIS WITH A CORE OF WESTERLY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 150 KT E
    OF 120W. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT
    TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD ALOFT WHICH IS MANIFESTED IN THE
    FORM OF A BROKEN BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 150 NM AND 550 NM
    S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
    STABLE AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF THE TROUGH
    AXIS. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK CAN BE SEEN IN
    INFRARED IMAGERY IN THIS REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT E OVER
    THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAKING WAY FOR RIDGING BEHIND IT THROUGH THU
    NIGHT. BY FRI...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS.
    THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEW TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
    WEAK.
    A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
    08N116W INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A RIDGE
    AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE NE INTO THE GULF OF FONSECA
    WHILE A SECOND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO
    08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS
    OBSERVED NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 120W
    UNDER THE MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
    WESTERN RIDGE AXIS ALOFT. PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR
    DETAILS. FARTHER E...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
    ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 87W AND 96W LIES IN A POOL OF 2.25 TO
    2.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BUT ALSO UNDER A REGION OF
    INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE. THEREFORE...THE CONVECTION
    HERE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    AT THE SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH PRES LIES OVER FAR NW WATERS NEAR
    29N140W WHILE CONTINUED TROUGHING LIES OVER THE SW U.S. WITH A
    DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FOUND OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA AND
    CALIFORNIA COAST FROM 31N117W TO 33N126W. THE STRONG PRES
    GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGHING AND THE SURFACE RIDGE
    AXIS...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR
    15N105W...IS GENERATING 20 TO 25 NW WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA
    CALIFORNIA COAST. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1652 UTC CONFIRMED THESE
    WINDS ARE IN PLACE OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE BROAD
    UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SW U.S. WILL MOVE E OVER THE NEXT
    TWO DAYS AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND SHRINK SOUTHWARD.
    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKED AT 16 FT IN THE NW SWELL OFF THE
    NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE
    SWELL PROPAGATES SOUTHWARD. LOW PRES AT THE SURFACE ASSOCIATED
    WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT HAS SHIFTED
    SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN MEXICO WITH 996 MB LOW PRES ANALYZED
    NEAR 22N98W. THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE MEXICAN PACIFIC COAST
    NEAR 20N HAS STRENGTHENED BETWEEN THIS LOW PRES TO THE E AND THE
    RIDGE TO THE W. NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER NEAR 20 KT
    THERE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT TWO
    DAYS.
    SOUTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LIES A BROAD AREA OF STRONG NE
    TRADE WINDS. THE 1652 AND 1834 UTC ASCAT PASSES SHOWED 20 TO 25
    KT WINDS W OF 115W FROM 05N TO 24N WITH SOME RETRIEVALS AS HIGH
    AS 30 KT. TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRES OVER NW WATERS IS FORECAST TO
    MOVE SE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SHIFTING THE RIDGE
    AXIS FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL COMPRESS THE TRADES SOUTHWARD
    TOMORROW AND THE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL SHRINK WESTWARD
    FRI AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE N WEAKENS.
    GAP WINDS...
    20 KT N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
    SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE END OF THE
    FORECAST PERIOD ON FRI EVENING.
    FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
    HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE


    forecast by SCHAUER

    Updated on: Thu, 11 Mar 2010 08:55:12 GMT
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  • Outlook
    Updated on: Thu, 11 Mar 2010 08:55:12 GMT
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  • Atlantic

    ATLANTIC PUBLIC/MARINE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MESSAGES
    ISSUED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS
    END OF REPORT


    Updated on: Thu, 11 Mar 2010 08:55:12 GMT
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  • Pacific

    EASTERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MESSAGES
    ISSUED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS
    END OF REPORT


    Updated on: Thu, 11 Mar 2010 08:55:12 GMT
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  • Buoy Map
  • South Florida
    buoy

    Florida Keys (SANF1)

    24.46°, -81.88°
    Air temperature:  74°
    Water temperature:  no report
    Pressure:  1010.9 (-2.6) in.
    Wind speed:  SE at 06 kts.
    Wind gust:  10 kts.
    Wave height:  no report
    buoy

    Miami (FWYF1)

    25.59°, -80.1°
    Air temperature:  72°
    Water temperature:  70°
    Pressure:  1012.0 (-1.9) in.
    Wind speed:  SE at 10 kts.
    Wind gust:  12 kts.
    Wave height:  no report

    West Palm Beach (LKWF1)

    26.61°, -80.03°
    no report
    buoy

    Bahamas (SPGF1)

    26.7°, -78.99°
    Air temperature:  70°
    Water temperature:  no report
    Pressure:  1013.7 (-1.5) in.
    Wind speed:  SE at 20 kts.
    Wind gust:  25 kts.
    Wave height:  no report
    buoy

    Venice (VENF1)

    27.07°, -82.45°
    Air temperature:  68°
    Water temperature:  60°
    Pressure:  1010.4 (-2.9) in.
    Wind speed:  E at 22 kts.
    Wind gust:  27 kts.
    Wave height:  no report

    Key West (DRYF1)

    no report
    Thu, 11 Mar 2010 08:45:05 GMT

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