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AXNT20 KNHC 201043
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N21W 2N30W ALONG THE EQUATOR
WEST OF 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM S OF THE EQUATOR
TO JUST INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 5W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 18W-26W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC
TO OVER E GULF. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
THE W ATLC COVERING THE FAR E GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF HAZE AND FOG ARE
OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO.
OTHERWISE THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E TODAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF
THE TEXAS COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG TO GALE FORCE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE NW GULF WATERS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DISSIPATING AS IT
ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER S HAITI NEAR 19N72W CONTINUING S TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE
FRONT TO A LINE FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO NICARAGUA NEAR
14N84W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM
ACROSS THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC TO OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN BRINGING DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT TO THE AREA W OF A LINE
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
N/CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL AND W TROPICAL
ATLC. THUS CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE FAR E GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDING FROM A 1019 MB HIGH JUST NE OF THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 28N76W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING BERMUDA SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1013 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 32N70W MOVING DRIFTING E. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N56W ALONG
25N61W TO 21N67W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO OVER HISPANIOLA
DISSIPATING BEFORE IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 200/250 NM W OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 24N. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE N
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO BEYOND 32N42W WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR
32N36W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 25N E OF 25W TO
THE COAST OF W AFRICA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE


forecast by WALLACE
updated at 805 AM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010

AXPZ20 KNHC 200959
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAR 20 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 03N77W TO 03N111W TO 06N121W TO 03N131W TO 04N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM
93W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
180 NM OF AXIS FROM 110W-122W.
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 08N122W HAS E-W RIDGE EXTEND ALONG
08N THROUGH SOUTH AMERICA. MINOR DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN RIDGE
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING ALONG ITCZ
NEAR 120W. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ NOW EXTENDS TO 13N
INTRUDING INTO DRY AIR MASS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 108W
N OF 15N ALLOW MOISTURE TO APPROACH SOUTHERN MEXICO...BUT NO
RAIN EVENT EXPECTED AS LITTLE MECHANISMS FOR UPLIFT IS FORESEEN
IN AREA.
DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WELL NORTH OF REGION HAS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTEND SW W OF BASIN BUT ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NW
CORNER AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF DIFFUSING AS IT BUMPS INTO WELL
ANCHORED HIGH PRES RIDGE. CYCLONE LIFTS NE PULLING SUPPORT OUT
OF ADVANCING FRONT AND LETTING IT DIE.
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
SURFACE HIGH PRES 1022 MB AT 30N128W WEAKENS AS IT COLLIDES WITH
COLD FRONT BUT REBUILDS BY SUN INCREASING FRESH BREEZE TRADES W
OF 125W FROM 07N-15N. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 120W TIGHTENING
GRADIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FRESH NE NW OF ITS AXIS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH LATE TODAY OR SUN.
HIGH PRES WELL N OF AREA MAINTAINING LONG FETCH W OF COLD FRONT
PROMPTING LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL PROPAGATE THROUGH MOST OF E
PAC W OF 110W THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRES ALSO BRINGING
FRESH NW BREEZE INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE SAT AND SUN...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE SUN.
GAP WINDS...
COLD FRONT ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO FORCING STRONG WINDS ACROSS
ISTHMUS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY MID SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE ALE FORCE WINDS OUGHT TO BE SHORT LIVED AS GULF OF
MEXICO HIGH PRES MOVES QUICKLY E AND WINDS VEER SE.
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 75W IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS INCREASING
FRESH NE WINDS INTO GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH LATE SAT THEN
DIMINISH SUN AS FRONT WEAKENS AND BECOMES DIFFUSE. GULF OF
PAPAGAYO STRONG NE-E WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE


forecast by WALLY BARNES