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AXNT20 KNHC 161717
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC...
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W 2S45W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-EQ BETWEEN 25W-32W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 28N95W TO 24N95 TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE TEXAS AND
THE W GULF N OF 25N W OF 93W. THE A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM LOUISIANA TO W CUBA. 10 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE
E GULF E OF THE RIDGE AXIS. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND TEXAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
GULF WITH A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE W GULF W OF 87W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...A THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO BE OVER THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
RAIN AND SHOWERS.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WITH SHOWERS N OF THE ISLAND. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST
OF N HONDURAS WHERE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE
AREA WITH 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION. EXPECT...RAIN AND SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND ELSEWHERE OVER N COLOMBIA AND N VENEZUELA W OF 65W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N43W TO N OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 32N43W 27N50W 23N60W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE FRONT FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN
32W-41W. FURTHER EAST A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N23W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND W ATLANTIC W OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 40W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR...THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
32N35W TO 23N58W WITH CONVECTION.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE


forecast by FORMOSA
updated at 205 PM EDT TUE MAR 16 2010

AXPZ20 KNHC 162129
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 16 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W TO
03N85W TO 06N105W TO 04N115W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS
E OF 87W AND WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND
84W. A TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 106W FROM 02N TO
09N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM E
AND 390 NM W OF THE TROUGH N OF 05N AND WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE
TROUGH S OF 03N.
...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 25N W OF 125W. A 100-120 KT JETSTREAM IS S
OF THE TROUGH ALONG 26N W OF 130W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 125W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
WITHIN THE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WELL DEFINED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ACROSS NW MEXICO TO THE
MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SW FLOW SE OF THE TROUGH IS
ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 07N95W...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE
E INTO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA/NW PANAMA. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHILE
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR THE ITCZ E
OF 87W UNDER THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT.
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 26N140W. NE WINDS OF
20-25 KT WERE W OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS 14 TO 17 FT IN
NW SWELL. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W.
TRADES AT 20 KT ARE FROM 05N-20N OVER WATERS PRIMARILY W OF 130W
WITH MIXED SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN NW...NE AND SW SWELL. A COUPLE OF
TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE FIRST ALONG 106W AND
THE SECOND ALONG 123W. THE EASTERN TROUGH HAS SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR ITS AXIS. SEE THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE
FOR DETAILS.
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ABOVE 20 KT THIS EVENING AND THEN BLAST QUICKLY TO GALE FORCE IN
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TIGHTENS THE
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING...WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR
STORM FORCE ON WED.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE


forecast by COBB/SCHAUER